About

About CricketArb

CricketArb is a real-time arbitrage scanner purpose-built for cricket. It monitors odds from traditional bookmakers — Betfair Exchange, Betway, Unibet, 1XBet, and others — and compares them continuously against Polymarket prediction markets. When a discrepancy appears that guarantees a profit regardless of outcome, the scanner surfaces it instantly.

Think of it as a Bloomberg Terminal for cricket arb: live data, structured feeds, no noise.

What It Does

Every 60 seconds during a live match, CricketArb fetches the best available odds for both sides from all tracked bookmakers. It simultaneously polls Polymarket for the current implied probabilities on the corresponding prediction market. The two data sources are compared and an overall combined market probability is computed.

When the combined implied probabilities across both sources fall below 100%, the scanner has found an arbitrage — a window where you can back both outcomes at prices that guarantee a return regardless of which team wins. The Live Terminal shows this in real time, and the free Arbitrage Calculator lets you size your stakes precisely.

The arb detection logic compares only Polymarket prices against bookmaker consensus — never bookmaker against bookmaker. This is deliberate: Polymarket is a zero-margin market (no house edge), which creates structural pricing differences from traditional bookmakers. Those differences are where the arbitrage lives.

How the Detection Algorithm Works

The algorithm runs in four stages on each polling cycle:

1. Fetch bookmaker odds: The Odds API returns best available prices from 8+ bookmakers for both team outcomes.
2. Remove overround: Each bookmaker's margin is stripped using proportional reduction — converting raw odds into "true" implied probabilities. The consensus average is taken across all books.
3. Fetch Polymarket price: The Gamma API returns the current CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) price for the Polymarket prediction market on the same fixture. Token price equals implied probability directly.
4. Compare and alert: Total implied probability = bookmaker consensus + Polymarket price. If the total falls below 100%, the guaranteed profit margin is (1 ÷ total) − 1, expressed as a percentage. Any margin exceeding your configured threshold triggers an alert.

The system also runs a swap detection check: if a bookmaker's implied probability differs from the consensus by more than 20%, the team assignment is likely reversed in that bookmaker's feed. CricketArb corrects for this automatically.

Smart Polling — How API Credits Are Conserved

Most arbitrage scanners poll APIs continuously, burning through quota even when no match is live. CricketArb uses a Cricbuzz-gated architecture to avoid this:

• Cricbuzz check (every 60s, always running): Monitors live and upcoming T20 matches. Detects when a match transitions to "In Progress".
• Odds API (every 60s, live matches only): Activated only when Cricbuzz confirms a match is live. Covers UK, EU and Australian bookmaker markets.
• Polymarket (every 30s, live matches only): Queries the Gamma API for the current market price. Deactivated if no market exists for the fixture.
• Commentary (every 30s, live matches only): Ball-by-ball score, overs, CRR and RRR from Cricbuzz populates the Match Context panel.

This means API credits are consumed only during the 3–4 hours of an actual live T20 match, not the other 20 hours of the day when nothing is happening.

Tournaments Covered

• IPL 2026 — Indian Premier League. The world's highest-profile T20 competition, with 10 franchises playing 74 league matches plus playoffs. The IPL generates the most liquid Polymarket markets for cricket and the deepest bookmaker coverage.
• PSL 2026 — Pakistan Super League. 6 franchises, played in Pakistan. Good bookmaker coverage on UK-licensed books. Polymarket markets available for later rounds and finals.
• ICC T20 Men's World Cup 2026 — The sport's premier international T20 tournament. Takes place across India and Sri Lanka in 2026. All major bookmakers offer markets, and Polymarket has historically had its most liquid cricket markets during World Cup events.

Bookmakers Tracked

CricketArb tracks odds from the following bookmakers via The Odds API:

• Bet365 — UK-licensed, one of the largest cricket betting books globally
• Betfair Exchange — Peer-to-peer exchange with no house margin; highly competitive prices
• Betway — UK-licensed, strong IPL and PSL coverage
• Unibet — Swedish-owned, EU-licensed
• 1xBet — High-volume bookmaker with very competitive IPL odds
• Sportsbet — Australian-licensed, strong T20 World Cup coverage
• William Hill — Historic UK bookmaker, good international cricket coverage
• Ladbrokes — UK-licensed, particularly competitive on IPL finals and semi-finals

The consensus probability is weighted equally across all available bookmakers for a given fixture. Books that do not offer a market on a particular match are excluded from that match's consensus.

Who Built It

The idea came from watching IPL 2025 markets. During high-profile matches, Polymarket prices diverged from bookmaker consensus by 3–8% for 15–30 minute windows — more than enough to generate guaranteed returns. Identifying and acting on these windows manually, across multiple browser tabs, was error-prone and slow. The solution was obvious: automate it.

CricketArb launched in April 2026, in time for the IPL season. We plan to add more bookmakers, expand prediction market coverage (including Kalshi and Manifold Markets), and introduce a mobile app before the ICC T20 World Cup. All feature requests and partnership enquiries go to support@cricketarb.com.

Tech Stack

CricketArb is built on open-source components:

The backend is a single Express server that handles both the REST API and WebSocket connections. A background polling loop runs every 60 seconds (Cricbuzz) and activates supplementary 60s/30s loops when a live match is detected. All state is persisted to PostgreSQL — odds snapshots, detected arb opportunities, and match metadata — so the history table survives server restarts.

The frontend is a React 18 SPA served by Vite. The live terminal connects to the WebSocket endpoint at /ws and updates every panel in real time without page reloads. If the WebSocket connection drops, it reconnects automatically with exponential backoff.

Accuracy and Limitations

CricketArb is a scanning tool, not a financial adviser. While the arbitrage maths is sound, several real-world factors affect execution:

• Odds change speed: Bookmaker odds update continuously. By the time you place a bet, the price you saw may have moved. Act fast on detected arbs — windows of 3–5% rarely last longer than 5–15 minutes.
• Account limits: Traditional bookmakers may limit or close accounts that exhibit clear arbitrage patterns. Polymarket has no such restrictions.
• Liquidity on Polymarket: For smaller IPL fixtures, Polymarket market liquidity may be thin. Large stakes can move the market price before your order fills. Check the order book before placing.
• Polling delay: The scanner's 60-second cycle means up to 60 seconds can pass between an arb opening and your first alert. Integrate the Telegram channel for faster manual alerts.

Frequently Asked Questions